Discount codes redeemed by customers who were going to buy anyway are pure margin transfer. This finds them in your own order export and puts a monthly dollar figure on each pattern.
No — and it won't claim to. Causal lift needs a holdout test. What it does is surface the patterns where discount spend went to demand that shows no associated change in order rate, quantify them, and label the figure as modeled from your export rather than guaranteed.
It's a projection with the arithmetic attached, and it's labelled that way on screen. If you act on a recommendation, the outcome is later re-measured against your own newer export — and only outcomes measured that way count toward the product's track record. Figures you type in yourself are shown but never counted.
An order-level export with a discount column. Revenue and order id are required; customer id enables the repeat-buyer split, and cost data enables the below-cost check.
The teardown is free and needs no account. Paid plans are $29/mo (Growth), $129/mo (Scale, Autopilot included) and $249/mo (Portfolio, multiple stores). Annual billing = 2 months free.